Romney makes his sixth visit to Iowa this year
Romney will make just his sixth visit to Iowa this year on Friday, ahead of the Republican debate in Des Moines on Saturday night. His campaign has been ratcheting up its outreach, holding a tele-town hall with Iowans this week.
Polls suggest Romney’s chances of winning the caucuses are dwindling. A month after a Des Moines Register survey showed Romney locked in a tie atop the field, he has been caught flat-flooted by a surging Gingrich, who is suddenly luring voters who profess to be primarily concerned with issues in the former Massachusetts governor’s wheelhouse, including the economy and electability.
The Romney campaign has cantilevered these efforts with the continued fight to temper expectations. Aides argue Romney is the only candidate who doesn’t need to win Iowa, and that a top three finish, for which Romney remains on course, is enough to carry him into New Hampshire, a presumptive firewall state. But Romney’s aides, convinced Gingrich will implode on his own, are reticent to go negative on the former House Speaker. Romney has just five people on his Iowa payroll: His senior strategist, state director and three field staffers, along with unpaid volunteers.
In the TIME/CNN/ORC poll, 55% of likely Iowa caucus goers said they haven’t made up their minds. In a rough stretch for Romney, the former Republican front-runner, that suddenly qualifies as great news. So with the state’s critical caucuses creeping up and Newt Gingrich white hot in the Hawkeye State, Romney’s campaign is still playing it cool, drawing on Christie’s skills as a surrogate on a day when a new TIME/CNN/ORC poll showed Gingrich with a 33% to 20% lead over Romney among likely caucusgoers in Iowa.
Romney has reason enough to avoid a big bet on Iowa. There is the unpleasant memory of 2008, when he finished a distant second to Huckabee despite committing significant resources to the state. He’s also so strong in other early presidential states, New Hampshire and Nevada, that he doesn’t necessarily have to win Iowa in order to be the GOP nominee. Trying too hard here and losing a second time could be embarrassing.
The Iowa caucuses’ dominance in presidential politics is purely symbolic. Heavy campaigning there — and, for the media, unyielding coverage, which follows a tradition dating back to 1972, when Democrats first used sudden press stories on Iowa’s caucuses to fabricate momentum for George McGovern. Republicans started playing along four years later. Since then, the Iowa caucuses have illogically been given electoral importance of which they’re not unworthy: for all the 39-years of hoopla surrounding them, they have yet to prove themselves accurate oracles of presidential races. Ronald Reagan lost the Iowa caucuses in 1980 and then-Vice President George H.W. Bush lost to Bob Dole by 18 points in 1988. Both men, we know, went on to win the White House
Deputy Majority Leader Shawn Jasper describes Romney : “Governor Romney has the executive experience and skills that are needed to defeat President Obama and turn around our economy. He is clearly the strongest Republican candidate and the most qualified person to lead our party in 2012,” He said . “Mitt is running the type of traditional New Hampshire campaign that Granite Staters expect from presidential candidates. He is taking nothing for granted and working hard to earn every vote.
Since 1980, every GOP candidate who took Iowa lost in the Granite State. Geraghty speculates that this correlation follows from the desire of New Hampshire voters to ensure that the presidential race is not decided by the first caucuses in Iowa. Another explanation for this trend is that candidates who commit to winning in Iowa are unable to devote the time and resources necessary to compete with candidates who focus on New Hampshire. Which might suggest that if Romney takes Iowa then New Hampshire voters could transfer their support to Jon Huntsman, who has spent considerable time campaigning in the state.
Sources:
Swampland
Mitt Romney Central
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